Futures for Brent crude fell to $73 a barrel on Friday. This was due to further tightening of monetary policy and aggressive statements by major central banks, which had a negative impact on the outlook for the global economy and energy demand. On Thursday, the Bank of England and the Bank of Norway raised interest rates higher than most analysts had forecast, while the Swiss National Bank continued to tighten its policy. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also told the US Congress that further rate hikes would be necessary to curb inflation. In addition, a number of PMI data from advanced economies indicate a sharp slowdown in manufacturing and services activity, which affects market sentiment. At the same time, EIA data show an unexpected decline in US crude inventories by 3.8 million barrels last week, while an increase of 0.33 million barrels was expected. Inventories at a delivery center in Cushing, Oklahoma also fell by 98,000 barrels.
BRENT Weekly Forecast June 26 — 30, 2023
Quotes of BRENT oil complete the trading week near the area of 73.80 dollars per barrel. The asset continues to move within the framework of the decline and the downward channel. Moving averages indicate a bearish trend. Prices have gone down from the area between the signal lines, which indicates pressure from sellers of raw materials and a potential continuation of the decline already from current levels. At the moment, we should expect an attempt to develop a decline and test the support area near the level of 68.25. Then, it is worth considering a rebound upwards and the continuation of the growth of oil in the area above the level of 89.05 dollars per barrel.
An additional signal in favor of rising oil prices this week will be a test of the support line on the relative strength index (RSI). The second signal will be a rebound from the support area on the price chart. Cancellation of the option to raise quotes and prices for BRENT oil in the trading week June 26 — 30, 2023 will be a fall and a breakdown of the level of 65.05. This will indicate a breakdown of the support area and a continuation of the fall of oil to the area below the level of 53.65. With the breakdown of the resistance area and the closing of quotes above the level of 80.85, we should expect confirmation of the rise in the price of BRENT oil, which will indicate a breakdown of the upper limit of the downward channel.
BRENT Weekly Forecast June 26 — 30, 2023 suggests an attempt to test the support area near the level of 68.25. Where should we expect a rebound and an attempt to continue the growth of oil with a potential target at the level of 89.05. An additional signal in favor of rising oil prices will be a test of the trend line on the relative strength index (RSI). Cancellation of the growth option will be a price drop and a breakdown of the 65.05 area. This will indicate a breakdown of the support area and a continued fall in the price of oil with a target below the level of 53.65.
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