The Australian dollar fell below $0.67, hitting its lowest level in two weeks. This was due to the aggressive tightening of monetary policy by major central banks, which raised fears of a global economic slowdown and put pressure on risk assets, including commodities and currencies associated with them. The latest minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting noted that the decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in June was taken “in balance”, and this reduced expectations of further tightening in the coming months. However, the bank’s board announced its readiness to take all necessary measures to return inflation to the target range of 2-3% within a reasonable time, recognizing the risks of inflation growth. Since the beginning of May 2022, the RBA has already raised its interest rate by 400 basis points, which has led to an 11-year high of 4.1%.
AUD/USD Weekly Forecast June 26 — 30, 2023
Currency pair Australian Dollar to US Dollar AUD/USD completes the trading week near the area of 0.6697. The pair continues to move as part of the development of the fall and the long-term downward channel. Moving averages indicate a bearish trend. Prices have broken through the area between the signal lines down, which indicates pressure from sellers of the asset and a potential continuation of the fall in the value of the currency pair. At the moment, we should expect an attempt to develop a bullish correction and test the resistance area near the level of 0.6765. Then, a rebound and continued fall of AUD/USD with a potential target below the level of 0.6265 in the foreign exchange market.
An additional signal in favor of the fall of the pair on Forex will be a rebound from the upper border of the descending channel. The second signal will be a rebound from the downtrend line on the relative strength index (RSI). Cancellation of the option of falling the AUD/USD currency pair in the current trading week June 26 — 30, 2023 will be a strong growth and a breakdown of the level of 0.7045. This will indicate a breakdown of resistance and a continuation of the rise of the Australian Dollar on Forex with a potential target at the level of 0.7345. A confirmation of the development of the decline will be a breakdown of the support area and closing prices below the level of 0.6475.
Among the important news from Australia, which may have an impact on the Australian exchange rate, it is worth highlighting: Australia Retail Sales m/m.
AUD/USD Weekly Forecast June 26 — 30, 2023 suggests an attempt to develop a bullish correction and test the level of 0.6765. Further, the continuation of the decline of the currency pair below the level of 0.6265. In favor of the fall of the pair in the current trading week, a test of the trend line on the relative strength index (RSI) will come out. Cancellation of the downside option will be a strong growth and a breakdown of the 0.7045 area. This will indicate a breakdown of the resistance area and continued growth of the pair with a target above 0.7345.
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