The Euro/Dollar currency pair EUR/USD ends the trading week with a strong gain near the 1.0890 area. The dollar fell amid weak US unemployment data. In July, the US economy added 114,000 jobs, which is significantly lower than the expected 175,000 jobs. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to a 2021 high, reaching 4.3%, and wage growth slowed more than expected. This led to the fact that the markets priced in a 100 basis point cut in the Fed rate this year, including a 50 basis point cut and two 25 basis point cuts at three meetings of the regulator before the end of the year.
The moving averages indicate a bullish trend for the pair. Prices broke the area between the signal lines upwards, which indicates pressure from buyers of the European currency and a likely continuation of growth from current levels. As part of the Euro exchange rate forecast for the trading week, we should expect an attempt to develop a slight decline in the EUR/USD quotes and a test of the support area near the level of 1.0805. From where an upward rebound and continued rise of the Euro Dollar currency pair is expected in the current trading week.
EUR/USD Forecast and Analysis August 5 — 9, 2024
A potential growth target is the area above the level of 1.1425 as part of the beginning of the development of the inverted “Head and Shoulders” reversal pattern. An additional signal in favor of the rise of the EUR/USD pair on Forex will be a test of the support line on the relative strength indicator (RSI). The second signal will be a rebound from the lower border of the bullish channel. The cancellation of the option of rising quotes of the Euro Dollar pair in the current trading week of August 5 — 9, 2024, will be a fall and a breakout of the level of 1.0535. This will indicate a breakout of the lower border of the pattern and a continuation of the fall of the pair to the area below the level of 1.0325. With a breakout of the resistance area and closing of quotes above the level of 1.1025, we should expect confirmation of the rise in quotes for the pair, which will indicate a breakout of the upper border of the “Triangle” pattern and the beginning of the pattern with targets at the top.
EUR/USD Forecast and Analysis August 5 — 9, 2024 suggests an attempt to develop a bearish correction and a test of the support area near the level of 1.0805. From where we should expect an upward price rebound and continued growth of the pair on the Forex market to the area above the level of 1.1425. An additional signal in favor of the rise will be a test of the support line on the relative strength indicator (RSI). The cancellation of the growth option for the Euro Dollar will be a fall and a breakout of the level of 1.0535. In this case, we should expect the pair to continue to decline with a potential target at 1.0325.
