The euro slipped 0.8% on Friday, falling below $1.09 and approaching its biggest daily drop since mid-March. This is due to concerns about the potential economic impact of higher interest rates on the eurozone economy. The latest PMI data showed a sharp slowdown in German private sector growth in June, as well as a slowdown in business activity in France, which occurred for the first time in five months. On Wednesday, the single currency reached a six-week high of $1.1 per euro after a series of surprise moves by central banks to tighten policy. With eurozone inflation remaining well above the policymakers’ target of 2%, it is likely that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates at least twice this year.
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast June 26 — 30, 2023
The Euro/Dollar currency pair EUR/USD completes the trading week near the area of 1.0922 and continues to move as part of the fall and the formation of a large reversal pattern “Head and Shoulders”. Moving averages indicate a bullish trend. Prices have broken through the area between the signal lines up, which indicates pressure from buyers of the European currency and a likely continuation of growth already from current levels. At the moment, we should expect an attempt to develop the growth of quotes and test the resistance area near the level of 1.0995. Where is the expected rebound down and the continuation of the fall of the Euro Dollar. The potential target of the decline is the area below the level of 0.9805.
An additional signal in favor of a decrease in the EUR/USD currency pair on Forex will be a test of the resistance line on the relative strength index (RSI). The second signal will be a rebound from the upper border of the bearish channel. Cancellation of the option of falling quotes of the Euro/Dollar pair in the current trading week June 26 — 30, 2023 will be a strong growth and a breakdown of the level of 1.1275. This will indicate a breakdown of the resistance area and continued growth of the pair to the area above the level of 1.1685. With a breakdown of the support area and closing of quotes below the level of 1.0645, which will indicate a breakdown of the lower border of the “Head and Shoulders” reversal pattern and the beginning of the pattern with targets below.
Among the important news from America and Europe in the next trading week, which may have an impact on the EUR/USD rate, it is worth highlighting: Orders for basic durable goods in the US m/m (United States Core Durable Goods Orders m/m), Sales of new United States New Home Sales, Federal Reserve System (Fed) Chair Powell Speech, EIA United States Crude Oil Stocks Change, Federal Reserve System (Fed) Chair Powell Speech.
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast June 26 — 30, 2023 suggests an attempt to develop a bullish correction and test the resistance area near the level of 1.0995. Where should we expect the price to bounce down and the pair continue to fall in the Forex market to the area below the level of 0.9805. An additional signal in favor of the decline will be a test of the resistance line on the relative strength index (RSI). Cancellation of the fall option for the Euro/Dollar will be a strong growth and a breakdown of the level of 1.1275. In this case, we should expect the pair to continue to rise with a potential target at the level of 1.1685.
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