The euro fell below $1.068, which is the lowest level in the last six months. It comes after the European Central Bank raised interest rates for the 10th time in a row and signaled it was going to pause its monetary tightening policy. ECB officials said current borrowing rates have reached a level where, if maintained long enough, they would contribute significantly to bringing inflation down to target. However, the Central Bank predicts that inflation will remain at high levels for a long time, despite the fact that it is declining. According to the ECB’s economic forecasts, average inflation in the euro area is expected to be 5.6% in 2023, 3.2% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. While stronger-than-expected data from the United States further bolstered the case for an extended period of elevated interest rates in America.
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast September 18 — 22, 2023
The Euro/Dollar currency pair EUR/USD ends the trading week with a fall near the 1.0655 area. Moving averages indicate a bullish trend. Prices have broken through the area between the signal lines downwards, which indicates pressure from sellers of the European currency and a likely continuation of the fall from current levels. At the moment, we should expect an attempt to develop a rise in the pair’s quotes and a test of the resistance area near the level of 1.0745. Where is the expected rebound downwards and the continuation of the fall of the Euro Dollar. A potential downward target is the area below the level of 0.9965.
An additional signal in favor of a decline in the EUR/USD currency pair on Forex will be a test of the resistance line on the relative strength indicator (RSI). The second signal will be a rebound from the lower border of the bullish channel, which was broken down by the bears. Cancellation of the option of falling quotes for the Euro/Dollar pair in the current trading week of September 18 — 22, 2023 will result in strong growth and a breakdown of the level of 1.1275. This will indicate a breakdown of the resistance area and continued growth of the pair to the area above the level of 1.1535. With the breakdown of the support area and closing of quotes below the level of 1.0555.
Among the important news from America and Europe in the next trading week, which may have an impact on the EUR/USD rate, it is worth highlighting: Federal Reserve System (Fed) Interest Rate Decision, Press Conference Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Press Conference, United States Existing Home Sales.
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast September 18 — 22, 2023 suggests an attempt to develop a bullish correction and test the resistance area near the 1.0745 level. Where can we expect a price rebound downwards and a continuation of the pair’s fall on the Forex market to the area below the level of 0.9965. An additional signal in favor of a decline will be a test of the resistance line on the relative strength indicator (RSI). Cancellation of the Euro/Dollar fall option will be a strong growth and a breakdown of the level of 1.1275. In this case, we should expect the pair to continue to rise with a potential target at the level of 1.1535.
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