In May 2023, retail sales in the United Kingdom grew by 3.7% year-on-year, but the growth rate slowed down compared to April, when a 5.2% increase was recorded. Rising food prices have led to consumer spending cuts on non-essential items and sharp spending cuts in anticipation of the three public holidays. May is also the lowest in the last seven months. Food spending has increased due to the Eurovision, while fuel costs have been falling for the third consecutive period. Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, said that although consumer confidence is still recovering from a record low and household incomes continue to decline, sales are not expected to rise significantly in the coming months. However, she added that signs of a possible decline in inflation give retailers hope for further improvement in confidence.
GBP/USD Weekly Forecast June 12 — 16, 2023
The currency pair Pound/Dollar GBP/USD completes the trading week as part of the development of the rise and the beginning of the development of the “Wolfe Wave” model with the target at the level of 1.2540. Moving averages indicate a bullish trend. Prices have broken through the area between the signal lines up, which indicates pressure from buyers and a potential continuation of the growth of the British Pound against the US Dollar already from current levels. At this point, we should expect an attempt to develop a rise and test the resistance area near the level of 1.2625. Further, a rebound down and the continuation of the fall of the Pound Dollar quotes to the area below the level of 1.1365.
An additional signal in favor of the decline of the British Pound will be a test of the resistance line on the relative strength index (RSI). The second signal will be a rebound from the upper border of the bearish Wolfe Wave pattern. Cancellation of the option to fall the GBP/USD pair in the current trading week June 12 — 16, 202 will be a strong growth in quotes and a breakdown of the 1.3065 area. This will indicate a breakdown of the resistance area and continued growth to the area above the level of 1.3375. The fall of the GBP/USD currency will be confirmed by a breakdown of the support area and closing of the price below the level of 1.2155.
GBP/USD Weekly Forecast June 12 — 16, 2023 suggests an attempt to rise and test the resistance level near the area of 1.2625. Where should we expect the currency pair to continue falling with the target below the area of 1.1365. An additional signal in favor of the decline will be a test of the trend line on the relative strength index (RSI). Cancellation of the fall option for the Pound/Dollar pair will be a strong growth and a breakdown of the level of 1.3065. In this case, we should expect the pair to continue to rise with a potential target above the level of 1.3375.
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