On Friday, the New Zealand Dollar fell 0.4% to around $0.6143, another weakness for the second straight trading session. This is happening against the backdrop of a stronger US dollar supported by Fed Chairman Powell’s hawkish comments to Congress and confirming further interest rate hikes are possible. Domestically, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced a pause in monetary tightening last month after a series of 525 bps hikes in borrowing costs, hitting a 14-year high of 5.5% since October 2021. In terms of data, New Zealand’s trade surplus in May 2023 narrowed significantly from the same period a year earlier due to the rapid rise in imports versus exports. Last month, the manufacturing sector contracted for the third time in a row due to price pressure and ongoing labor shortages.
NZD/USD Weekly Forecast June 26 — 30, 2023
Quotes of the currency pair New Zealand Dollar against US Dollar NZD/USD complete the trading week as part of a correction near the level of 0.6143. Moving averages indicate the presence of a bearish trend for the pair. Prices are again testing the area between the signal lines, which indicates pressure from the sellers of the currency pair and a potential continuation of the fall from the current levels on the market. At the moment, we should expect an attempt to develop a bullish correction of the currency pair on Forex and a test of the resistance area near the level of 0.6175. Then, a rebound down and the continuation of the fall of the currency pair with a potential target below the level of 0.5595.
An additional signal in favor of the fall of the NZD/USD currency pair will be a test of the downtrend line on the relative strength index (RSI). The second signal will be a rebound from the upper border of the descending channel. Cancellation of the option of falling quotes of the pair in the current trading week of June 26 — 30, 2023 will be a strong growth and a breakdown of the 0.6445 area. This will indicate a breakdown of the resistance area and a continuation of the rise of the NZD/USD pair with a potential target above the level of 0.6735. The fall of the currency pair on Forex will be confirmed by a breakdown of the support area and closing of quotes below the 0.5865 area, which will indicate a breakdown of the lower border of the bullish correction channel.
NZD/USD Weekly Forecast June 26 — 30, 2023 suggests an attempt to develop a correction and test the resistance level near the 0.6175 area. Further, the continuation of the fall of the NZD/USD pair to the area below the level of 0.5595. An additional signal in favor of the fall will be a test of the trend line on the relative strength index (RSI). Cancellation of the pair’s fall option will be a strong growth and closing of NZD/USD quotes above the level of 0.6445. In this case, we should expect the currency pair to continue to rise with the target above the level of 0.6735.
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