The Russian ruble has been falling sharply, hitting 85 against the US dollar, its lowest level since April 2022. This is due to lower oil prices and limited availability of foreign exchange on the market due to reduced supply from exporters. The market faced a decrease in trading activity and became vulnerable to significant fluctuations after the introduction of wide-ranging sanctions by Western countries against Russia. Last week, the Central Bank of Russia decided to keep the interest rate at 7.5%, but it provided strong evidence that an interest rate hike could occur later this year due to rising inflationary pressures. The latest data showed an acceleration of inflation in May, with the headline rate reaching 2.5%. This exceeds all expectations and marks an increase in inflation from a three-year low of 2.3% in April.
USD/RUB Weekly Forecast June 19 — 23, 2023
Currency pair Dollar Ruble USD/RUB completes the trading week near the level of 83.95 Rubles per US Dollar. The pair continues to move within the growth and bullish channel. Moving averages indicate a bullish trend. Prices are again testing the area between the signal lines, which indicates pressure from buyers of the US dollar and a likely continuation of the pair’s growth already from these levels. In the current trading week o June 19 — 23, 2023 we should expect an attempt to develop a correction and test the support area near the level of 80.05. Where should we expect a rebound upwards and continued growth of the Dollar against the Russian Ruble with a target above the level of 105.05.
An additional signal in favor of the rise of the Dollar/Ruble pair will be a rebound from the lower border of the bullish channel. The second signal will be a rebound from the support line on the relative strength index (RSI). Cancellation of the growth option for the Dollar/Ruble pair will be a fall and a breakdown of the 73.65 area. This will indicate a breakdown of the support level and a continued fall in the US Dollar against the Russian Ruble with a target below the level of 67.75. It is worth waiting for confirmation of the growth in the pair with the breakdown of the resistance area and the closing of USD/RUB quotes above the level of 90.65, which will indicate the breakdown of the upper limit of the bullish channel, and this is a signal to increase the width of the channel.
USD/RUB Weekly Forecast June 19 — 23, 2023 suggests an attempt to test the support area near the level of 80.05. Where should we expect a rebound upwards and the continuation of the growth of the dollar to the area above the level of 105.05. An additional signal in favor of this option will be a rebound from the bullish trend line on the relative strength index (RSI). Cancellation of the growth option for the dollar in the current trading week will be a fall and a breakdown of the 73.65 area. Which will indicate a continued decline in the pair with a target at the level of 67.75.
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